CHINA’S DEMOGRAPHIC ONSLAUGHT ON PAKISTAN -IS THIS THE REAL REASON FOR CPEC
By- Dr.Kartik Hegadekatti
The ongoing $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project has courted a lot of international attention. The minute details of the project have been kept tightly under wraps. Several observers are giving various reasons for China’s keen interest in the project. Pakistan today is a nation about which any investor would think several times before investing his money. With fundamentalism on the rise, being a hotbed of terror and with its economy and administration in shambles, Pakistan today is an investor’s nightmare. Yet, China has invested in Pakistan through CPEC, with all guns blazing.
It is estimated that the $62 billion that China is “investing” in CPEC is more than all the FDI that Pakistan has ever attracted, since 1970. Moreover, the CPEC “investment” alone is around 20% of Pakistan’s GDP.
Despite Pakistan being an investor’s nightmare, China has entered Pakistan in a big way. Why?
Several reasons have been cited by international experts. Some say China wants to encircle India. Some others opine that China wants to rapidly develop its ‘isolated’ western part. It is also thought that China wants to secure its energy and communications lines in the event of a lockdown of the Malacca Strait.
But amidst all this, one vital question lingers. Why Pakistan?
If we analyze closely, keeping in view China’s internal politics and history, a different picture emerges as to why Pakistan was chosen by China to be the “Fulcrum” of its One Belt One Road (OBOR) policy.
The answer for the above question simply put, is that China has chosen Pakistan for OBOR in order to “stabilize its demographic imbalance”. Confused? Let me elaborate.
Since the 1970s, China has aggressively implemented a “One Child Policy” (OCP). Because of OCP, married couples in China had to bring up only one child. They were provided incentives for that. In case of flouting the norm, they were punished. Not physically, but economically. The second child had to be brought up with the family’s own resources. And the government did not provide any subsidy for the “extra” child’s social costs. And Chinese society (like most Asian societies) is a male-offspring obsessed society. It is estimated that in the 35 years since its implementation, China prevented 400 million additional births. And most of the prevented births were that of female offsprings. Recently China relaxed its OCP. It did that for a reason. China now has 30 million men of marriageable age, who will never find a bride. And 30 million is a big number. 30 million is the population of many European/African nations. Imagine 30 million male youths; raging to release testosterone. They can cause unprecedented havoc, law and order problems and societal catastrophe.
How do you manage these 30 million men? The Chinese military is only 2.5 million strong. And it is not wise to use the military to police an internal demographic imbalance. Studies have also pointed out that most of these 30 million men who will not get a bride will belong to the lower economic classes i.e. those who cannot afford to sustain a family.
Now, what if you can employ that 30 million men and keep them busy in building a life? It will be even better if you can send them outside your borders. In this way, you will bring down the demographic pressure. Better still, if most of those 30 million men who go outside China, marry non–Chinese girls. Enter Pakistan. China’s problem solved.
A Chinese worker marrying Pakistani girl [SCREENSHOT FROM ‘THE NATION’]
A demographic analysis by this author shows that the number of Pakistani girls of reproductive age (15 – 39) is around 29 million (as per the latest publicly available census figures). And the numbers fit. Even if a few million Chinese men marry outside China, it will be to Pakistani girls. The demographic pressure in China will be that much reduced.
Several thousand Chinese workers are now in Pakistan as part of Phase I plan of the CPEC. Already, Chinese workers have begun to assert their alpha-male status in Pakistani society. It is evident from reports of a recent incident in Pakistan, where Chinese workers of CPEC beat up Pakistani police authorities when they were prevented from visiting nearby red-light districts.
Chinese workers beat up police officers because they were not allowed to visit a local ‘red light’ area. [SCREENSHOT
Some other reports on social media have showed that Chinese men are already marrying young Pakistani (especially tribal) girls in large numbers. With one Chinese Yuan equaling 18 Pakistani Rupees, an average daily wage Chinese worker will have 18 times more purchasing power than an average Pakistani. And ‘Mahr’ (dowry paid by the groom to bride’s family) being practiced in Pakistan (as a Muslim society), Chinese workers will find it easier to marry Pakistani girls than Chinese ones. If this fact is analyzed along with recent news items where Uighur wives of Pakistani men disappeared, it appears that the Chinese government may indeed follow this strategy. China doesn’t want its women/girls to marry Pakistani men (evident by the ‘Uighur wives Disappearances’).
But it may be covertly encouraging its male workers to seek out and marry Pakistani women. All this, with the greater goal is stabilizing its demographically imbalanced society. Because, if stability is not maintained, it will be the undoing of the communist party rule in China. These 30 million men can cause so much chaos in Chinese society so as to instigate rebellion and cause insurrection against the all-powerful Chinese communist party. Probably that is the reason Xi Jinping was made ruler for life. Things inside China are perhaps so unstable that the Chinese powers that be are unsure that a peaceful transition of power will take place in the next term.
Now what will happen to the Pakistani men, whose women counterparts are poached away by Chinese men?
If a few million Chinese men marry Pakistani girls, will there not be an imbalance in Pakistani society?
Probably China has plans for that too. For this we should look at the Falun Gong sect in China. The Falun Gong sect was persecuted by the Chinese government. Falun Gong is a modern Chinese spiritual practice that combines meditation and exercises with a moral philosophy centered on truthfulness and compassion. There were forced disappearances of a large number of Falun Gong members. It is said that those disappeared members were harvested for their organs. The study was done by David Kilgour and David Matas and published as “An Independent Investigation into Allegations of Organ Harvesting of Falun Gong Practitioners in China”
An estimated one hundred thousand organ transplants occur in China annually. But the sources of all those organs have not been explained by the Chinese Government. With recent reports that Pakistan’s former General-cum-President had sold 4,000 people to foreign nations, we can guess what might happen in the future. Corrupt Pakistani politicians and Army Generals will “sell” unmarried young men to the Chinese market for organ harvesting. Pakistani Punjabi youth ‘disappearing’ may soon be a new development (although Pashtuns, Minority and Balochi youth are already disappearing in the thousands).
A VERY BRILLIANT STRATEGY INDEED
China has, in the garb of OBOR, convinced Pakistan of CPEC (paid for by Pakistan in the long-term). The hundreds of projects that China has envisaged for CPEC will employ Chinese workers on a massive scale. And most of CPEC is construction work done by daily wage laborers of China who belong to the lower economic classes and are unmarried men. We now see that colonies of Chinese workers are coming up across the thousand odd Kilometers of CPEC by the dozen. Not only that; these China towns are catered to by Chinese businesses. These Chinese businesses import everything from alcohol to pork and automobiles to needle pins from China. Thus, it is ensured that CPEC will continue creating jobs for the Chinese youth. The Chinese workers who are now pouring into Pakistan in the hundreds of thousands are part of those 30 million men resulting from the demographic imbalance of the one child policy.
OBOR will make China not only a dominant world power but will also solve many of its internal problems. It will help China develop its impoverished western provinces. It will provide employment to a large Chinese workforce, mostly from its lower economic strata. At the same time, it will doubtless provide brides to the frustrated Chinese workers. Another added plus will be that a new market for ‘organ harvesting’ for China will possibly open up in Pakistan.
In the coming days, Pakistan may turn out to be a Brides and Organs providing ‘factory’ for the Chinese Behemoth. And the best bargain for China is that all of this will be at the Pakistanis’ cost. Paid for and bought by Pakistan. Hook, line and sinker.